The fact that theres no competition for snaps within the backfield and that hes used in all phases of the game helps keep his upside higher than almost any other player in fantasy and means gamescript cant take him out of any game. Time Period. Thomas' air-yards-per-target average was higher on crosses than his aforementioned overall average (9.6 to 8.1), and his catch rate above expectation was second to only Lockett among those with at least 20 targets on crosses. View 2022 Advanced Wide Receiver Stats including Yards After Catch, Average Depth of Targets, Catchable Passes, and more. But if we use each players TPRR and Y/T from last year, Stills projection stays at 1.45, while Johnsons rises to 1.74. This chart helps hammer that point home. He finished in the top 20 in deep targets and red zone targets, but outside the top 30 in numerous stats; including an 18.8-percent target share (No. Jones averaged 6.0 fewer routes run per game than Hopkins over this stretch. Ginn ran a, Not listed in the bottom five, but relevant based on his reputation: Seahawks receiver DK Metcalf ranked 66th out of 72 receivers by our measure of route versatility. Which prospects selected in Rounds 2 and 3 project to be steals? We also needed to decide when to measure receiver separation. Basically, Bell is playing almost a full quarter per game more than the next-closest running back. Deep targets (at least 15 air yards) are the most valuable in football on a per-play basis, but theyre also the throws with the tightest windows. Yards per route run is the crown jewel of PFF's advanced stats for wide receivers. But we also see deep ball specialists like D.J. ranked him first among all wide receivers, creates and maintains separation from a defender, the conversation for best receiver in the league. In fact, if we instituted a minimum of, say, 15 receptions on out routes, only DeAndre Hopkins (86.4%) and Calvin Ridley (80%) even come close to Thomas' catch rate. We cant say anything about the skill of receivers who fail to earn targets. NOTE: EPA/target is expected points added per target; this measures the value of individual plays in terms of points comparing the down, distance and field position situation at the start of the play relative to the end of the play. The second season in a row that he led the NFL in catches. You won't want to miss a moment of the 2023 season! Those types of opportunities vaulted Brown up this list. To predict a receivers future yards per target, we use only 28% of his prior yards per target average. This shouldn't be thought of as falling short of a 1.0 correlation, because RTMs are hopefully doing a good job of subtracting the influences of context, as in routes, depths, coverages, double teams, quarterback skill and so on. Who has the edge? Beasley also saw significant action against Philadelphia in week seven, when the Cowboys were without their top two running backs. Average number of seasons as a WR1/WR2 + >250 routes run during rookie year w/ at least 20 targets, Average number of seasons as a WR1/WR2 w/ at least 20 targets during their rookie year (no minimum route run threshold). For example, we can see that A.J. In other words, only 47.4% of a receivers Yards per Route Run is predictive of his YPRR in Year N+1. The following browsers are supported: Chrome, Edge (v80 and later), Firefox and Safari. While Johnson had the worst year of his career since becoming a Bills starter, he still managed to pull down targets on 25% of his snaps. Wide receivers make the bulk of their high-value receptions on passes at intermediate depths (between 5 and 15 . Through thirteen games, Jernigan had just 10 catches for 92 yards, and was a forgotten man behind Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks, and Rueben Randle. The aforementioned play from last year's season opener came on a deep in route by Brown. Measuring separation at the time of the throw punishes teammates with great chemistry. The Next Gen Stats analytics team identifies 14 unheralded players who should be kept off the free agency market by their squads. [2]While there are some issues with survivorship bias here, Im not sure (1) how to get around them, and (2) that those concerns bias the results in a way thats more biased towards one of Continue reading jQuery('#footnote_plugin_tooltip_20827_1_2').tooltip({ tip: '#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_20827_1_2', tipClass: 'footnote_tooltip', effect: 'fade', predelay: 0, fadeInSpeed: 200, delay: 400, fadeOutSpeed: 200, position: 'top center', relative: true, offset: [-7, 0], }); To predict Year N+1 Yards per Route Run using Year N Yards per Route Run, the best fit formula is, N+1 YPRR = 0.843 + 0.474 * Yr N YPRR (R^2 = 0.21). NFL and the NFL shield design are registered trademarks of the National Football League.The team names, logos and uniform designs are registered trademarks of the teams indicated. Jones was targeted deep more frequently, suggesting that his skillset is better suited to the demands of beating fast humans in a footrace, but hes also not as successful at creating separation from defenders as Thomas is. It makes sense intuitively, as the more routes you run, the more targets you have available to you. 3. Looking at the 2019 wide receiver draft class, there are several players that fall into these buckets. The Real Reason Presidential Candidates Form Exploratory Committees, Aug. 10, 2020, Looking at raw statistics can be somewhat misleading, but looking at yards per route run for a wide receiver actually shows what a player is doing with the opportunity presented to him. Ted Ginn Jr., now a member of the Chicago Bears, ranked as our least versatile route runner of 2019 among qualifying wide receivers. 2023 NFL Enterprises LLC. In an attempt to not inundate you, the reader, with number after number, I will try to make this concise and to the point. The receiver is credited (or debited) for the yardage beyond (or below) that benchmark, rather than the raw yards after catch gained. Regular-season passes of between 5 and 15 air yards, minimum of 40 targets. Jones is usually on everyones list of the top wide receivers in the league, but he is rarely No. Because he was below average for this data set, and everyone in the set gets regressed to the mean of the group, he benefits. So while wed like more data, we should probably expect players who show the ability to separate above expectation on routes at these depths to continue to do so.7, Best and worst receiver seasons on intermediate passes as measured by separation over expected (SOE) per play, 2017-19. Hes ranked 22nd, ninth, and 13th in target percentage over the past three seasons. We looked at every WR with 60+ targets* from 2020. It's pretty simple: Thomas wins in the short game and will make you pay if you don't stop him. It was far below his 2020 form, which ended in him being one of the five most valuable wide receivers in the NFL, according to PFF WAR. 43), 11.5 (No. Among the three metrics YPRR, Y/T, and TPRR its Targets Per Route Run thats the most consistent from year to year. In each of four seasons coached by Mike McCoy (now calling plays for the Cardinals), Antonio Gates totaled at least 85 targets. If we wanted to predict each players Yards per Route Run in 2014 [4]Ignoring the fact that Johnson is now a 49er, of course. Do you have a sports website? How would this formula work for Stills and Johnson? After spending some time looking at our route data, I wanted to highlight a few of my favorite metrics that Ive found. Below are a few tables showing the breakdown and thresholds used during this process. will certainly allow you to drill down and begin to cross off several variables when projecting future performance. As were using air yards the vertical yards on a pass attempt relative to the line of scrimmage this bucket includes passes behind the line of scrimmage. Which QB makes the list? Oct 25, 2020; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Chris Godwin (14) against the Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium. To account for this effect, Open Score is adjusted for the number of defenders exclusively "assigned" to a receiver. Hunter Renfrow caught 80.5% of the 128 targets thrown his way in 2021. As soon as I saw A.J. Is Michael Thomas elite? I believe player profile has them too. It was an extremely small sample, but Seals-Jones was easily our most efficient tight end on a per-route basis last year. Stat. Being quick and fast isnt enough for NFL success; just ask Yamon Figurs or Darrius Heyward-Bey, both of whom ran a 4.3 40-yard dash at the NFL combine. The final model does a decent job of predicting separation at the catch point on a given play.4 We used its predictions as a baseline for performance and compared each receivers actual separation on a given play to what the model expected an average players separation would have been, given similar circumstances. Gabriel Davis is a wide receiver for the Buffalo Bills. The model is an xgboost trained with fivefold cross validation and tested on out-of-sample data. Who is No. The Next Gen Stats analytics team uses its newly launched Expected Return Yards model to identify the top 10 returners of the 2022 regular season. NFL. The data wizards are back again with another new way to break down some of the game's top weapons. Terry McLaurin, Deebo Samuel, A.J. Let's dig into the methodology behind the Route Recognition model: The Next Gen Stats player-tracking system records the x-y location, speed, acceleration, direction and orientation of all 22 players on the field in real time. It wasn't his frame but his footwork -- a fake outside, an adjustment upfield and a sharp cut at the top of the route -- that created the space necessary for a 51-yard catch-and-run on that play. So, what can we do with this information, and why should we care? As technology and the growth of the fantasy football community both continue to boom, so too do the metrics and measurables that present themselves for analysis. Some receivers attract more attention from defenses than others, which allows other pass-catchers to get less attention. Another interesting feature of short-target SOE is that a players ability to consistently get open on short throws appears to be mostly nonexistent. Timo Riske of Pro Football Focus has shown that the best receivers in the league earn their targets all over the field, so its no surprise to see familiar names in the deep-target SOE ranks. Regular-season passes greater than 15 air yards, minimum of 30 targets. Glendale, AZ, USA; Arizona Cardinals tight end Ricky Seals-Jones celebrates after catching a pass for a second quarter touchdown against the Jacksonville Jaguars at University of Phoenix Stadium. D'Onta Foreman thrived with the Panthers in 2022. Sample size caveats here. 32 lingering post-draft questions: Will Lions have regrets? Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY . He is unlikely to see the field in 2014, and will almost certainly go down as a colossal bust. Perhaps because of his success, Thomas has seen a steady increase in the number of targets at those depths. Source: NFL Next Gen Stats, ESPN Stats & Information Group. For example, Kenny Stills had the most extreme breakdown of any player in the NFL in 2013. With so many yards and an average YAC score, those yards must have been from deep or contested low-probability routes: How about Open Score? Look, there he is again! 4. CROE is catch rate over expectation, which measures performance relative to completion probabilities. Unlock all tools and content including Player Grades, Fantasy, NFL Draft, Premium Stats, Greenline and DFS. Who knows, but that at least explains why Jernigan was on the list. There are various versions of this metric -- and it is quite useful in some applications -- but there is a fatal flaw when applying the concept to pass-catchers, as tempting as it might be. Yards per Target, of course, is very sensitive to outliers. All other NFL-related trademarks are trademarks of the National Football League. Super Bowl Champion: Los Angeles Rams. 101st. [1]I suppose one counter to that would be that Stills was competing with Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston, and the Saints obsession with throwing passes to running backs, while Johnson was competing with Continue reading jQuery('#footnote_plugin_tooltip_20827_1_1').tooltip({ tip: '#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_20827_1_1', tipClass: 'footnote_tooltip', effect: 'fade', predelay: 0, fadeInSpeed: 200, delay: 400, fadeOutSpeed: 200, position: 'top center', relative: true, offset: [-7, 0], }); But putting the quarterbacks issue aside, the question today is a more global one. Not only is there a significant advantage to hitting the 2.00 yards per route run threshold in ones rookie year, but there is also a clear difference when that wide receiver ran at least 250 routes his rookie year. To avoid noise in the data from broken plays (during which pass catchers often stop running their assigned routes) and player movement after the catch (which would not tell us much about the efficacy of any given route), all routes were capped at either the moment the ball was passed forward or at a given time (4.6 seconds after the snap for wideout routes and 4 seconds after the snap for backfield routes) -- whichever came first. This creates chances for catch-and-run opportunities. Latest on Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Tutu Atwell including news, stats, videos, highlights and more on ESPN jQuery('#footnote_plugin_tooltip_20827_1_5').tooltip({ tip: '#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_20827_1_5', tipClass: 'footnote_tooltip', effect: 'fade', predelay: 0, fadeInSpeed: 200, delay: 400, fadeOutSpeed: 200, position: 'top center', relative: true, offset: [-7, 0], }); and Johnson at 1.58 YPRR. We know the Saints' Michael Thomas and Seahawks' Tyler Lockett are great receivers, but how do they perform on a per-route basis? Follow Mike on Twitter @MBandNFL. This approach not only accounts for dedicated double teams, but for coverage methods such as bracketing. For starters, we could look at the top 10 seasons since 2017 (when our data begins). 1:08 PM. HaSS layers height into the traditional speed score equation by also dividing the player's height by the average wide receiver height: 73.0 inches (6'1") or average tight end height: 76.4 . Keegan Abdoo meticulously explains how this could significantly impact Andy Reid's offense -- and fuel Lou Anarumo's defense. On average, wide receivers that hit 2.00 yards per route run and run at least 250 routes in their rookie campaign are 41% more likely to be a WR1 at any time during their career than a wide receiver that hit the 2.00 yards per route run threshold alone. Note: A couple of wide receivers have more pass routes than their teams had pass plays. 1, even though, statistically, hes the most efficient wide receiver in the league on a per-route basis. One way to try to answer the question is to look at how well a receiver creates and maintains separation from a defender. At the time, Jernigan had barely seen the field, so he hadnt run many routes, either. Robinson's 206 yards gained on corner routes led all receivers (minimum 75 total targets, regardless of route), and a lot of those yards were gained on catches he wasn't expected to make, per NGS. Yards per route run simply takes the total receiving yards a player accumulated in a given year and divides that by how many routes on passing plays he actually ran. There are important modifications to this calculation, which I'll detail below. The resulting weights tell us a lot about the importance of the three skills. The teams to sport multiple wide receivers on this list were Atlanta (Jones and Mohamed Sanu), Denver (Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders), LA Rams (Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp), Miami (Jarvis Landry and DeVante Parker), Minnesota (Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs), and Oakland (Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper). For reasons that will become evident in a moment, the far right column lists each players routes per team pass attempts in 2014. By no means am I suggesting that yards per route run is the only indicator of future success for a wide receiver in the NFL, but it is an integral piece of the puzzle. Thats where yards per route run comes into play. Who has the edge? Running Backs; Wide Receivers; Tight Ends; Line Stats. Have you ever wondered what sets George Kittle apart from Travis Kelce, or what makes A.J. Think of it like this: CPOE measures the catching ability of a receiver, accounting for his ability to get open. 42. Below, we'll reveal the top three receivers for eight different routes, and tell you why the No. To view standard stats, check out our WR Stats reports. The following browsers are supported: Chrome, Edge (v80 and later), Firefox and Safari. So we need to account for depth of target and how far the QB had to throw the ball when we apportion credit for the separation a receiver got on a given play. Thats somewhat shocking and perhaps it explains why the number of Landrys short targets dropped by nearly half after he moved to the analytics-friendly Cleveland Browns. Brown's 2019 season was buoyed by his ability to generate yards after catch despite a mediocre Catch Score, and that Cooper Kupp's 'amazing 2021 season did not rely on any one specific ability but was consistently solid across all three components: Here are the top-five seasons in YAC Score since 2017: The top-five Catch Score seasons include who we might expect and then Marvin Jones Jr. Jones had an amazing season for the Lions in 2017, with 1,101 yards and a league-leading 18.0 yards per catch. 41) Yards Per Target, and 1.90 (No. Learn More. Our new Receiver Tracking Metrics (RTMs) use player tracking data from NFL Next Gen Stats to analyze every route run -- including those that are untargeted -- and assess receiver performance in three distinct phases: getting open, contesting and making the catch, and generating yards after the catch (YAC). While averaging more than a half-yard over expected in separation, his per-play expected points added (EPA) was worth more than 0.4 points in 2019. Did Pats make Mac Jones happy? Snap Counts; Pace / Time Stats; Drive Stats; Get More Statistics from FO + Exclusive Premium Content For Subscribers. Having a high SOE in one season says very little about whether you will have a high SOE in the next.6 Short targets are also the only leaderboard where running backs make an appearance, owing to the dearth of targets they get deeper downfield. Over the past two seasons, LeVeon Bell averaged more routes run per game (33.0) than all of A.J. These statistics provide a detailed view of how a WR accumulates Although Sanders is likely still the WR2 on his team (behind Thomas in the pecking order), he shouldnt be treated as such for fantasy. Which view is correct? Those numbers came in garbage time against Seattle and against Detroit and Washington, so they should be taken with a grain of salt. If you are simply a box score watcher, nothing about Chris Godwins rookie season would have gotten you excited. It is also important to keep an eye on the changing landscape that is the NFL. Catch Score correlates at 0.38, and YAC Score correlates at 0.35. The best fit formula is: N+1 Yd/Tar = 5.84 + 0.28 * Yr N Yd/Tar (R^2 = 0.08). These include route type, depth of route, coverage type (Cover 3, Man 2 and so on), position at snap (wide, slot, tight, backfield), distance from sideline, time after snap, down/distance/yard line and whether or not the play featured play-action. Using the Next Gen Stats Draft Model, Mike Band identifies eight prospects to target AFTER Round 1. In 2017, I developed a concept now commonly called Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE). Were there any indicators that could have pointed to such a breakout? Frequently Asked Questions about the NFL and Football, Pro-Football-Reference.com Blog and Articles, Subscribe to Stathead Football: Get your first month FREE. I came into this article with the belief that the rate of yards per route run during a wide receivers rookie season was a fairly strong indicator for future success, but I wanted to take a deep dive to really be sure. . Other players appear able to consistently create separation on short targets Jarvis Landry is one example but the value of Landrys targets as measured by EPA are much lower than those directed at Thomas. However, Thomas is ranked atop this group because of his three touchdowns scored on slants, and his catch rate of 87.9 percent is also best among any receiver with 10 or more targets in the NFL. Conversely, when looking at it from this lens, it might be time to pump the breaks on NKeal Harry, who only had .83 yards per route run his rookie season. What about Yards per Target? Sources: NFL Next Gen Stats, ESPN Stats & Information Group. In the tables above, I am referring to hit rate as any wide receiver that achieved WR1 (top-12 in PPR formats) status in a given season in his career. Contextualizing routes at the league-wide level gives a macro look into the value of route classification. He may be a bust, but it wasnt because of what he did on the field. Unlike our win-rate metrics for line play, there already are reliable statistics that do a good job of telling us who are the best receivers. With NFL+, stay connected throughout the rest of the NFL offseason with special content from Training Camp, Hall of Fame, and more! He was off-the-charts good in yards per target (13.9), but saw targets on just 9% of his routes run last year. The data set includes all regular-season pass attempts from the last three seasons, excluding spikes and passes from punts and field goal formations. 2023 Superflex Dynasty Rookie Draft Rankings (Fantasy Football), 2023 Dynasty Rookie Rankings (Fantasy Football), Fantasy Football Rankings: Dynasty Trade Value Chart (May 2023 Update), Dynasty Rookie Draft Primer: Quarterbacks (2023 Fantasy Football), Dynasty Rookie Sleepers: UDFAs (2023 Fantasy Football), Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft: Superflex, 4 Rounds (2023 Fantasy Football), Best Ball Strategy & Advice: Late-Round Quarterback (2023 Fantasy Football), Copyright 2010- FantasyPros.com Thomas was pressed 49% of the time on crossing routes, yet he posted a catch rate that was 24.9% above expectation on 29 targets. 2022 season stats. The lone outlier there is Robert Foster, and his situation clearly changed from 2018 to 2019. ESPN Stats & Information Group. Making the right read and extending the play plausibly are two big reasons for this. Ricky Seals-Jones ran only 68 routes last year but drew 28 targets for 201 yards and three touchdowns on those routes. The Next Gen Stats analytics team digs into three key free agency needs for every NFC team. Note that while NFL playbooks have hundreds of variations of routes, we've narrowed it down to these high-level categories, including 10 routes for those in typical wideout alignments and five for those aligned in the backfield: Wideout Routes (10): Screen, flat, slant, crossing, out, in, hitch, corner, post, go Backfield Routes (5): Screen, flat, angle, out, wheel. Essentially, based on routes run, Hopkins is almost playing an extra full quarter per game when compared to Jones. The Next Gen Stats Team uses its draft model to identify the five best value picks in Round 1 of the 2023 NFL Draft -- including two Georgia defenders selected by the Philadelphia Eagles. PFFs Fantasy Strength of Schedule (SoS) metric provides a league-wide, season-long view of opponent matchups for each fantasy position. How can a pass catcher win vs. press? 4. Seals-Jones is a strong ADP value, currently being drafted in the 15th round in MFL10s. Only Terry McLaurin was as productive in the scoring department on post routes as Diggs (three TDs apiece), which is why the Washington receiver makes the top three in this group. 2 and 3 on this list). the drag). Unfortunately, our models can't directly know the signal-callers pass progression (the sequence of reads he makes during each play), but they are aware of the route type, depth and time after snap of the pass release. Running backs saw a 0.87 correlation between raw touches and fantasy points. Our QB adjustments borrow a concept from hockey and basketball called Adjusted Plus-Minus. 2021. Well, the word useful will mean different things to different people. Brown such a special talent? Danielr28 2 yr. ago. These were somewhat shorter outs, averaging just 8.3 air yards per target, but Thomas still found a way to make the most of them, gaining an average of 2.72 yards after the catch on routes that are typically assigned to finish near the sideline. * These targets are based on play by play data and include penalties. The problem is we would be measuring receiver success accounting for the dynamic context of what is happening on the field. With our new route-classification model, we can evaluate which receivers are essentially the most predictable -- or different from the average. The SPORTS REFERENCE and STATHEAD trademarks are owned exclusively by Sports Reference LLC. (You can access our route data for wide receivers here, running backs here, and tight ends here, if youre a PFF Elite subscriber.). Quarterbacks sometimes can make receivers look good, but sometimes it's the other way around. Using the Next Gen Stats Draft Model, Mike Band identifies eight prospects to target AFTER Round 1. 2. We think this also makes sense. These short passes, however, are where Michael Thomas frequently shines. 2022 Wide Receiver Stat Busts - Slot Performance . However, he finds himself atop this list because of his league-leading 396 receiving yards and five touchdowns on go routes, which came as a result of 13 receptions and a 4.6 percent catch rate above expectation on such routes. His opponents surely are, but you can't say they weren't warned: Thomas makes it clear with his Twitter handle that he can't be guarded. How will the Panthers address their quarterback void? Seems like he has a strong case, even without a touchdown scored on a hitch. He's no DK Metcalf (his 6-4, 229-pound former Ole Miss teammate), but that actually works to his advantage, as his 226 pounds are well-packed into his frame to allow him to box out defenders, catch the ball and then outrun them to the end zone, with a stiff-arm packed in as a complimentary parting gift. One interesting insight from the adjustments is that quarterbacks have a large effect on the openness of receivers at pass arrival. Now, by definition, if yards per target is less sticky than yards per route run, than targets per route run has to be the stickiest. Explore sample . Of course, when comparing Stills numbers to Johnsons, one might note that Johnson was playing with EJ Manuel and Thaddeus Lewis while Stills was playing with Drew Brees, which provides some explanation for the drastic differences between the two receivers in yards per target. Ultimately, our separation model ending up including features that account for quarterback arm strength, the receivers separation at the time the QB targeted them, the horizontal and vertical position of the receiver on the field at the time of the throw, where the receiver lined up pre-snap, the distance to the goal line, the amount of break in the receivers route during the footballs journey through the air after it was released, the depth of the QBs drop, the number of other routes that were being run on the play, if the play was a play-action pass or a screen, and the number of deep safeties.3. The Chief's quarterback is not a particularly accurate thrower, but he helps his targets get open. Previous Season Next Season. If what RTMs measure are truly intrinsic to each individual receiver, then receivers should carry these qualities from year to year. You won't want to miss a moment of the 2023 season! Practice fast mock drafts with our free Mock Draft Simulator. How will Josh McDaniels' Raiders and Robert Saleh's Jets address the gaping hole at quarterback? Receiving stats on intermediate passes for Michael Thomas and Julio Jones, including separation over expected (SOE) and expected points added (EPA) per play. Subscribe:iTunes|Google Play|Spotify|Stitcher|SoundCloud|TuneIn|RSS. For running backs, YAC Score accounts for about half of the overall score, with Catch Score the second largest component, followed by Open Score. The next-closest players in that category were the Rams' Cooper Kupp (99) and the Browns' Jarvis Landry (96). Conventional counting stats like receptions and receiving yards provide a way to measure an individual player's ability to catch and move the football, but they only tell part of the story. The idea was that NFL Next Gen Stats tracking data could estimate the chance of a completion on a pass, given the locations, directions and speeds of relevant players. With the 2023 NFL Draft right around the corner, who are the can't-miss prospects in this talent crop? The defense is typically willing to allow an offense to throw to wide-open players short, then rally to make a tackle for a short gain. The other three are kind of interesting. One thing to know is we exclude assessments of any nontargeted routes on a screen pass, because receivers typically are blocking rather than trying to get open.